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Post by marchesarosa on May 2, 2012 15:36:30 GMT 1
Another estimate of Arctic Ice in the pre-satellite era using temperature stations round the Great Polar Basin (as I like to call it!) from Frank Lansner Estimating Arctic sea ice area 1920-1978 using temperature stationsPosted by Frank Lansner (frank) on 13th September, 2011 Arctic sea ice area in september (minimum) has a lot of attention in the climate debate. However, we cannot know ice areas in the MWP or even in the last warm period, 1920-78. Due to evidence from wood remnants etc, we know, that it has much warmer in Greenland in the MWP than it is today, and thus we have to take for granted, that Arctic ice areas in the MWP was smaller than today. A little experiment: ----------- The lower temperatures are taken as proxies for higher ice extent and the higher temperatures as proxies for lower ice extent. more here hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/estimating-arctic-sea-ice-area-1920-1978-using-temperature-stations-234.php
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Post by marchesarosa on May 11, 2012 14:50:15 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 3, 2012 10:36:02 GMT 1
Jarvis Cocker, the well-known climatologist, has claimed Arctic sea ice has declined 75% in the last 30 years AND THE GUARDIAN HAS PRINTED IT !!!!! Lucy Seigle, the Guardian’s environment reporter, informed readers that: Of the Arctic sea ice, 75% has been lost over the past 30 years. Last year saw sea-ice levels plummet to the second-lowest since records began. It is estimated that the North Pole could be ice-free in the summer within the next 10-20 years.It always pays to show the FULL height of the (vertical) y-axis, don't you think?wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/03/the-guardians-ridiculous-claim-of-75-arctic-ice-loss-in-30-years/
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Post by nickrr on Aug 14, 2012 19:41:11 GMT 1
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Post by rsmith7 on Aug 14, 2012 23:55:46 GMT 1
Very strange since the sea isotherm charts I read weekly and the sea temperature I record daily show way below average (Over the last 50 years) But your web browsing trumps real world experience obviously...
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Post by marchesarosa on Aug 15, 2012 13:34:23 GMT 1
Even stranger that when SOME people talk about the poles being more affected by purported anthropogenic global warming than the rest of the planet they only mean the NORTH pole.
Sea ice in the Southern hemisphere is on arising trend. Taken together the global sea ice remains level for the short period of a few decades that it has been recorded by satellite.
The Arctic, has undergone previous periods of enhanced summer melt before, most notably in the 1920s and 1930s.
Remember this, nickrr?
The Washington Post November 2nd, 1922.
Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.
(The newspaper article was located in the Library of Congress archives by James Lockwood.)
November, 1922. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
THE CHANGING ARCTIC BY George Nicolas Ifft
(under date of October 10, 1922, the American Consul in Norway submitted the following report to the State Department, Washington, D.C.)
The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard of high temperatures in that part of the earth’s surface.
In August, 1922, the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitzbergen and Bear island under the leadership of Dr Adolf Hoel, lecturer on geology at the University of Christiana. Its purpose was to survey and chart the lands adjacent to the Norwegian mines on those islands, take soundings of the adjacent waters, and make other oceanographic investigations.
Dr Hoel, who has just returned, reports the location of hitherto unknown coal dposits on the eastern shors of Advent Bay - deposits of vast extent and superior quality. This is regarded as of first importance, as so far most of the coal mined by the Norwegian companies on those islands has not been of the best quality.
The oceanographic observations have, however, been even more interesting. Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, saling as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus.
The character of the waters of the great polar basin has heretofor been practically unknown. Dr Hoel reports that he made a section of the Gulf Stream at 81 degrees north latitude and took soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters. These show the Gulf Stream very warm, and it could be traced as a surface current till beyond the 81st parallel. The warmth of the waters makes it probable that the favorable ice conditions will continue for some time.
Later a section was taken of the Gulf Stream off Bear Island and off the Isfjord, as well as a section of the cold current that comes down along the west coast of Spitbergen off the south cape.
In connection with Dr Hoel’s report, it is of interest to note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and the observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigtsen, who has sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, that since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, and that today the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same Arctic region of 1868 to 1917.
Many old landmarks are so changed as to be unrecognizable. Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now often morraines, accumulations of earth and stones. At many points where glaciers formerly extended far into the sea they have entirely disappeared.
The change in the temperature, says Capt. Ingebrigtsen, has also brought about great change in the flora and fauna of the Arctic. This summer he sought for white fish in Spitsbergen waters. Formerly great shoals of them were found here. This year he saw none, although he visited all the old fishing grounds.
There were few seal in Spitzbergen waters this year, the catch being far under the average. This, however, did not surprise the captain. He pointed out that formerly the waters about Spitzbergen held an even summer temperature of about 3 degrees Celsius; this year recorded temperatures of about 15 dgrees Celsius, and last year the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.
With the disappearance of white fish and seal has come other life in these waters. This year herring in great shoals were found along the west coast of Spitzbergen, all the way from the fry to the veritable great herring. Shoals of smelt were also met with. ------------
Isn’t the internet wonderful - giving people like me access to this fabulous historical archive? It is like going back in time. What a privilege to retype this old story here for modern readers to appreciate. I hope you do appreciate it and draw the appropriate conclusions from it.
NB This warming, which was also experienced in Greenland, lasted from 1918 to C1939.
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Post by nickrr on Aug 18, 2012 16:29:47 GMT 1
The link was about ice coverage, not sea temperature. Try and keep up.
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Post by nickrr on Aug 18, 2012 16:33:44 GMT 1
Yes and it's as irrelevant now as when you first posted it. It's just the usual "the climate has changed in the past so changes now must be natural" rubbish.
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Post by marchesarosa on Aug 18, 2012 19:05:10 GMT 1
Well, the possibility that climate change is natural should be given consideration, nickrr.
I know for some reason some folk prefer to be in a state of constant anxiety over something bad looming in the future but really, that mindset is neither rational nor scientific.
So, until climate apocalypse can be demonstrated rather than merely predicted I'll keep an open mind about it, thank you.
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Post by rsmith7 on Aug 18, 2012 20:04:41 GMT 1
The link was about ice coverage, not sea temperature. Try and keep up. So sea temperature and sea ice aren't related in your little mind. Marvellous
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Post by marchesarosa on Aug 28, 2012 9:14:31 GMT 1
Here's an interesting comparison of Arctic Ice extent from August 4th 2012 to August 9th 2012. What happened in between? A huge Arctic storm which blew much of the ice southwards through the Fram Strait (the sea area between Greenland and Spitzbergen). Colour code for ice extent - magenta and purple indicate ice concentration near 100%, yellow, green, and pale blue indicate 60% to 20% ice concentration.This, incidentally, is the same storm scenario that resulted in the 2007 peak ice loss, as discussed here in a NASA article: www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/quikscat-20071001.html It will not stop the usual suspects blathering about an "all-time low" like Al Gore (about a mere 33 years of satellite records) and blaming it on the "hot" Arctic, though.
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Post by marchesarosa on Aug 28, 2012 9:33:38 GMT 1
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Post by fascinating on Aug 28, 2012 11:34:54 GMT 1
Yet the amount of ice left now is considerably less than that of 2007, and there is still nearly a month of melting to go yet.
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Post by rsmith7 on Aug 28, 2012 14:39:18 GMT 1
You should phone the Swedish Government and tell them they won't need all the extra ice breakers that they had last year then...
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Post by marchesarosa on Aug 28, 2012 17:25:55 GMT 1
Who said there was a month more of melting to go? How do they know? Whatever it is that causes variability in Arctic Amplification, I doubt that it is CO2/Greenhouse Effect. Remember Arctic warming has been greater in Winter whereas Arctic sea ice melting is greater in summer even though the temperature hardly gets above freezing (see the blue line). How do these facts connect? See the DMI data here Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.The Green line is the average temperature 1958-2002 more info here ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpNo-one really knows what concatenation of effects causes the cyclical variation in Arctic sea ice. Is it warmer air, warmer sea currents, wind variability, air pressure, precipitation? It could be quite counter-intuitive. Some believe that an "open" Arctic is linked to more precipition as snow in the Northern Hemisphere and a faster escape of heat to space which cools the Earth and that a frozen over Arctic (preventing heat loss by the insulating effect of the sea ice) does the opposite. Tricky! There is no simple key to understanding climate variability, unless you are a simpleton!
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