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Post by alancalverd on Sept 9, 2015 0:21:01 GMT 1
The IS supply chain is interesting. They seem to rely on fairly basic infantry weapons and small-bore artillery - exactly the stuff the Chinese supplied to the Vietcong. I suspect, as in Vietnam, Somalia, and elsewhere, the Party is playing a long game: supply weapons now in exchange for oil, minerals or whatever later. Meanwhile the Chinese economy is supported by western consumers buying clothes, electronics etc - it's easy to balance the books in a centrally controlled economy even if parts of industry are run on capitalist lines.
On the other side it seems pretty clear that the Syrian government military is equipped by Russia, which has been playing the long game for many years . So we are seeing another Vietnam, with guerrilla insurgents fighting a small, technically superior force, and each supported by a massive external interest. It is not in the interest of any Syrian civilian to hang around in this war zone: the best they can hope for is a quick result leading to a new, stable dictatorship that recognises the need for merchants and professionals to return and run the country.
So the best the West can do is to support the refugees in nearby countries until the war is over, in the hope that, eventually, the returning middle classes will trade with us - another long game.
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Post by fascinating on Sept 9, 2015 9:10:59 GMT 1
I don't know of any evidence to show that the weapons came from the Chinese, Alan. Iraq and Syria have not exactly been short on weapons over the past 10 years, lots of them left by the USA. I imagine that ISIS have got most of their arms from capturing them, or buying them using their oil money.
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Post by jonjel on Sept 10, 2015 11:02:43 GMT 1
Well when one looks at IS propaganda film you see tanks and large mobile guns and trucks. Even if they captured these they need ammunition spare parts and a lot more besides.
Are we saying it is not possible to prevent them from getting that stuff? A drone has just taken out a couple of people. Is it not possible for drones, or indeed manned aircraft to take out 'stuff' en route to IS areas?
I could be wrong, but armies in the past have been defeated because they ran out of supplies of food fuel or ammunition and I think IS are no different. For example the German army was defeated in Russia despite actually getting as far as the end of the tram tracks in Moscow because their supply lines were too long and were targeted by a far less sophisticated Russian army.
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Post by fascinating on Sept 10, 2015 15:32:51 GMT 1
Well when one looks at IS propaganda film you see tanks and large mobile guns and trucks. Even if they captured these they need ammunition spare parts and a lot more besides. Are we saying it is not possible to prevent them from getting that stuff? A drone has just taken out a couple of people. Is it not possible for drones, or indeed manned aircraft to take out 'stuff' en route to IS areas? I could be wrong, but armies in the past have been defeated because they ran out of supplies of food fuel or ammunition and I think IS are no different. For example the German army was defeated in Russia despite actually getting as far as the end of the tram tracks in Moscow because their supply lines were too long and were targeted by a far less sophisticated Russian army. "ISIS's continued success is at least partially due to its seizure of military equipment from fleeing Iraqi soldiers. When ISIS overran Mosul, they captured weaponry that allowed them a conventional army, rather than a ragtag insurgency. "You lost approximately three divisions worth of equipment and probably at least three depots in that area," Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies [said]." from www.businessinsider.com/isis-military-equipment-breakdown-2014-7?IR=TMore details of ISIS weaponry (mostly captured from Iraqi army, and of Soviet origin) here www.militaryfactory.com/smallarms/weapons-of-isis.asp
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Post by jonjel on Sept 10, 2015 16:33:09 GMT 1
I don't doubt that for one minute Fascinating, but whatever they have and wherever they got it they will still need spare parts, ammunition and everything else that goes with keeping that lot moving and shooting.
And bear in mind the Syrian army had the backing of Russia, together with a lot of their specialists which IS do not have. And 'stuff' goes out of date pretty fast.
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