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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 12, 2010 9:31:45 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 15, 2010 2:11:16 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 15, 2010 8:44:11 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 18, 2010 18:03:18 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 18, 2010 18:37:37 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 19, 2010 16:28:38 GMT 1
Speculation Alert: “New Little Ice Age Cannot Be Ruled Out”Wednesday, 15 December 2010 09:16 Rickmer Flor, wetter.info Everybody is talking about global warming – but in Germany and also in many other countries around the world people are currently fighting with the adversities of extreme cold. And indeed: “The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,” said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to wetter.info . And it might even get worse: “It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,” the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.More here www.thegwpf.org/science-news/2053-speculation-alert-qnew-little-ice-age-cannot-be-ruled-outq.html
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 20, 2010 9:56:23 GMT 1
The man who repeatedly beats the Met Office at its own game Piers Corbyn not only predicted the current weather, but he believes things are going to get much worse, says Boris Johnson. By Boris Johnson 8:21PM GMT 19 Dec 2010 Well, folks, it's tea-time on Sunday and for anyone involved in keeping people moving it has been a hell of a weekend. Thousands have had their journeys wrecked, tens of thousands have been delayed getting away for Christmas; and for those Londoners who feel aggrieved by the performance of any part of our transport services, I can only say that we are doing our level best.
Almost the entire Tube system was running yesterday and we would have done even better if it had not been for a suicide on the Northern Line, and the temporary stoppage that these tragedies entail. Of London's 700 bus services, only 50 were on diversion, mainly in the hillier areas. On Saturday, we managed to keep the West End plentifully supplied with customers, and retailers reported excellent takings on what is one of the busiest shopping days of the year.
We have kept the Transport for London road network open throughout all this. We have about 90,000 tons of grit in stock, and the gritters were out all night to deal with this morning's rush. And yet we have to face the reality of the position across the country.
It is no use my saying that London Underground and bus networks are performing relatively well – touch wood – when Heathrow, our major international airport, is still effectively closed two days after the last heavy snowfall; when substantial parts of our national rail network are still struggling; when there are abandoned cars to be seen on hard shoulders all over the country; and when yet more snow is expected today, especially in the north.
In a few brief hours, we are told, the snowy superfortresses will be above us again, bomb bays bulging with blizzard. It may be that in the next hours and days we have to step up our de-icing, our gritting and our shovelling. So let me seize this brief gap in the aerial bombardment to pose a question that is bugging me. Why did the Met Office forecast a "mild winter"?www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8213058/The-man-who-repeatedly-beats-the-Met-Office-at-its-own-game.htmlBoris, as any fool knows, it's because they believe their own propaganda, their own data "adjustments" and their own models over and above real observations. Simply everything is now down to "climate Change", whatever that means. It's certainly the most banded about most nonsensical concept ever. What we are experiencing is not "global warming/climate change/climate disruption" but a timely and healthy reminder of the reality of natural variation biting the warmist propagandists in the b*m.
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 20, 2010 10:27:05 GMT 1
How about this reminder from young Simon, scion of the Met Office Establishment, making a stupid remark, based merely on his own VERY short experience, that I posted elsewhere early in the year? It bears repetition.
5th January 2010 on the WH's Proboard
Young Simon is telling the Cbeebies that snow is a "very rare event" but he's nobbut a lad is, he? And the kiddies have even LESS experience of normal weather variation. I call this sort of "news" abuse of the innocence of the young! and I include Simon himself in that category!
I ws born at the end of March 1947 after three months of arctic weather. My pregnant mum had to wear socks over her boots when venturing out on the ice.
I had a sledge as a kid, made by my dad, like all my pals, and we used them nearly every year.
Weather "normality" covers quite a wide range of variation over time, let's not forget that, Simon.
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 20, 2010 10:34:11 GMT 1
And let's not forget this bit of fun!
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 20, 2010 12:00:33 GMT 1
Phillip Bratby on WUWT says: December 19, 2010 at 12:42 am
Down in Devon, in the mild south west of England, I can report that I have been cut off from the outside world by deep snow for the second time this December. It was -15.6degC last night. Last winter I recorded a minimum of -17.9degC, but I was only cut off once.
The wind is not blowing and so all those wind turbines will be drawing power from the grid to stop themselves icing up. My oil tank level is falling at an unprecedented rate. Fortunately I took note of Piers Corbyn’s forecast for the winter, so I have stocks of food and oil. The Met Office is only 20 miles away and I ignored their forecast of a milder than normal winter.
This Mann-made global warming is definitely worse than I thought.
Then Phillip Bratby added: December 19, 2010 at 12:48 am
I should have added that the local authority leaves a few bags of salt at the side of the road and leaves it up to people to look after themselves. It’s tough if you aren’t in a town or on a main road. Most people live in towns and cities and their votes count more than rural folk.
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 20, 2010 19:55:29 GMT 1
Bishop Hill comments today: I was reading (I forget where) of concerns that the government's budget for cold weather payments to pensioners was being spent far faster than had been envisaged when the budget was put together. Was this, I wondered, something to do with a dodgy Met Office forecast? So, as is my wont, I contacted the Department of Work and Pensions and got a swift response. ...this year's budget for Cold Weather Payments for Great Britain was based on the average number of payments made over the last ten years and with a payment rate of £25 for each week of cold weather. This year's budget is £76 million. However, Cold Weather Payments will be made to all those entitled to receive them.
The budgeting process does not include a forecast of winter weather.
I guess we should be relieved that the Met Office were not involved. Somebody at DWP probably deserves a pat on the back for keeping them on sidelines. That said, you wonder whether using the average of the last ten years is a sensible metric. What do you think? bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/12/20/cold-weather-payments.html#comments
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Post by abacus9900 on Dec 20, 2010 20:06:56 GMT 1
marchesarosa, I'm sorry but you tend to present evidence in an unbalanced way. If you are going to be selective in your choice of evidence you can 'prove' anything!
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 20, 2010 21:36:26 GMT 1
Here’s someone at the Met who believed his own propaganda, abacus: Met Office, 25 February 2009: Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future. “The famously cold winter of 1962/63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 to 200 years before 1850.” Reality Check: Winter Of 2009/10 Coldest Winter For Over 30 Years Met Office, 1 March 2010: Provisional figures from the Met Office show that the UK winter has been the coldest since 1978/79. The mean UK temperature was 1.5 °C, the lowest since 1978/79 when it was 1.2 °C. Met Office July 2010: Climate Change Gradually But Steadily Reducing Probability Of Severe Winters In The UK Ross Clark, Daily Express, 3 December 2010: ONE of the first tasks for the team conducting the Department for Transport’s “urgent review” into the inability of our transport system to cope with snow and ice will be to interview the cocky public figure who assured breakfast TV viewers last month that “I am pretty confident we will be OK” at keeping Britain moving this winter. They were uttered by Transport secretary Philip Hammond himself, who just a fortnight later is already being forced to eat humble pie… If you want a laugh I recommend reading the Resilience Of England’s Transport Systems In Winter, an interim report by the DfT published last July. It is shockingly complacent. Rather than look for solutions to snow-induced gridlock the authors seem intent on avoiding the issue. The Met Office assured them “the effect of climate change is to gradually but steadily reduce the probability of severe winters in the UK”. Met Office 2010 Forecast: Winter To Be Mild Predicts Met Office Daily Express, 28 October 2010: IT’S a prediction that means this may be time to dig out the snow chains and thermal underwear. The Met Office, using data generated by a £33million supercomputer, claims Britain can stop worrying about a big freeze this year because we could be in for a milder winter than in past years… The new figures, which show a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this winter, were ridiculed last night by independent forecasters. The latest data comes in the form of a December to February temperature map on the Met Office’s website. Reality Check: December 2010 “Almost Certain” To Be Coldest Since Records Began The Independent, 18 December 2010: December 2010 is “almost certain” to be the coldest since records began in 1910, according to the Met Office. Met Office Predicted A Warm Winter. Cheers Guys John Walsh, The Independent, 19 January 2010: Some climatologists hint that the Office’s problem is political; its computer model of future weather behaviour habitually feeds in government-backed assumptions about climate change that aren’t borne out by the facts. To the Met Office, the weather’s always warmer than it really is, because it’s expecting it to be, because it expects climate change to wreak its stealthy havoc. If it really has had its thumb on the scales for the last decade, I’m afraid it deserves to be shown the door. A Frozen Britain Turns The Heat Up On The Met Office Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 9 January 2010: Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre’s predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this? A Period Of Humility And Silence Would Be Best For Met Office.wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/warm-bias-how-the-met-office-mislead-the-british-public/#more-29800
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 20, 2010 21:40:39 GMT 1
Abacus, perhaps you should be a little more broad brush in your admonitions. How about mentioning to your favourite warmists that they are spinning the actualité a bit one-sidedly, too?
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 20, 2010 21:58:57 GMT 1
Chiefio muses on snow "Of Epic Proportions"Snow “Of Epic Proportions” December 19, 2010 by E.M.Smith California Snow Depth 19 December 2010 With more falling… Last night on The Weather Channel they were giving their prediction for the present round of storms making a mess of things in California. I’d like to provide some perspective on that. The announcer said this storm would be “of epic proportions” and that snow could reach “15 FEET, not inches; FEET” in the Sierra Nevada mountains. (Sierra Nevada meaning Snowy Mountains…) Now, it’s not unheard of to have snowfall from one storm measured in feet. And it’s not unheard of to have snow total measured at 10 or more feet. Heck, we had one snow storm “of epic proportions” when I was about 3 or 4 years old (a bit fuzzy on the exact age) when my Dad put us all in the car (56 Chevy I think) and we went up to have a look at it. This was a several hour drive from the 32 foot elevation level of the Central Valley of California. Not something you would do for just any old snowfall. But a couple of years before the train “City of San Francisco” had gotten stuck in such a storm. Well, the road had been ploughed (one lane each way) and the walls of snow were about 18 feet high on each side. It was VERY strange to be driving in this trench in the snow. We went up to somewhere near Donner Pass. (Yes, that Donner Pass, where some of the Donner Party made it through a different and horrible snowy winter of “epic proportions” by dining on the ones who did not…) So we’ve had severe snow events on and off for a very long time. A few years before that, in 1952, a passenger train, The “City of San Franciso”, had gotten stranded. It’s an interesting story too. From the wiki: On January 13, 1952, another group became stranded about seventeen miles (27 km) west of Donner pass at Yuba Pass on Track #1 adjacent to Tunnel 35 (on Track #2) at about MP 176.5[4]. Southern Pacific’s passenger train City of San Francisco was en route westbound through the gap when a raging blizzard slowed the train to a halt. The passengers and crew were stranded for three days until the nearby highway could be plowed enough for a caravan of automobiles to carry them the few miles to Nyack Lodge.
Think about what kind of blizzard that must have been… There is a really good write up of it, with great pictures, here: cprr.org/Museum/Stranded_Streamliner_1952/index.htmlthat gives a great perspective on what things can be like “up there”… More here chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/19/snow-of-epic-proportions/
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