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Post by marchesarosa on Nov 14, 2012 17:21:15 GMT 1
Suggest nickrr has a read of this paper Long-Term Ice Variability in Arctic Marginal SeasIGOR V. POL Y AKOV, GENRIKH V. ALEKSEEV,ROMAN V. BEKRY AEV, UMA S. BHA TT, ROGER COLONY, MARK A. JOHNSON, VALERII P. KARKLIN, DAVID WALSH, AND ALEXANDER V. YULIN International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3C2078%3ALIVIAM%3E2.0.CO%3B2 and this Anomalies and Trends of Sea-Ice Extent and Atmospheric Circulation in the Nordic Seas during the Period 1864–1998TORGNY VINJE Norwegian Polar Institute, Oslo, Norway journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3C0255%3AAATOSI%3E2.0.CO%3B2These people are struggling hard just to describe what is and has been happening in the Arctic, yet nickrr thinks he already KNOWS the cause! One wonders why empirical science researchers bother! But nickrr probably thinks they are not REAL scientists, anyway.
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Post by marchesarosa on Nov 16, 2012 10:17:14 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Dec 16, 2012 18:14:47 GMT 1
With respect to the recent leak of the Second Order Draft of WG1 in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report page 14-62 of AR5 re arctic ice: There is high confidence that Arctic sea ice anomalies exhibit substantial interannual variability, so that ice loss or gain in any particular year cannot be taken as an indication or absence of a long-term trend due to anthropogenic forcing. What does this imply for all the recent brouhaha over Arctic Ice loss?
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Post by nickrr on Jan 8, 2013 14:32:46 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jan 10, 2013 23:41:28 GMT 1
Antarctica is neither warning nor warming,nickrr! Taken on average Antarctica is NOT warming. Only on the peninsula do measuring stations show an increase in temperature. But that is probably mainly due to our old friend the Urban Heat Island/airport effect. Black tarmac runways and buildings warm up more than ice which obviously has a high albedo. "Nature", far from being a serious scientific journal is now just a cheer-leader for climate alarmism. This research referenced by nickrr has already been debunked. "They can’t find any recent warming, so they took a broken sensor with “intermittent gaps and other problems”, “recalibrated” it, “used computerized analyses of the atmosphere to fill the gaps” and “discovered” warming that “happened in the 1980s”. If you believe that this is science, then I strongly suggest you prep your telescope, lest you miss out on a spectacular sleigh sighting…" See also the comments section here wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/24/scientists-report-faster-warming-in-antarctica/And the abstract of the article itself admits West Antarctica has *probably* (uh?) warmed since the 1950s, but there is disagreement regarding the magnitude, seasonality and spatial extent of this warming. This is primarily because long-term near-surface temperature observations are restricted to Byrd Station in central West Antarctica, a data set with substantial gaps. The whole "research" is based on just one measuring station, Byrd, which has an incomplete temperature record. How sad when alarmists resort to crap like this to keep their scaremongering alive.
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Post by alancalverd on Jan 11, 2013 2:38:08 GMT 1
If the sentence means what it says, that's an increase of 124 deg C. So Antarctica isn't just melting, it's boiling! I think someone would have noticed, surely? But if we are generous to the phraseology, it seems that the mean ambient temperature 6 ft above the Byrd runway (which is all that aviators care about) may have changed by 1.2 or possibly 3.6 degrees in 52 years. Hardly surprising as the runway has been rebuilt several times and now has a completely different surface from the original. Indeed the runway has been intentionally re-engineered from packed snow to ice, and every runway gradually accumulates soot and rubber dust, so the albedo will have increased year on year. An ice runway, being stable (if slippery), is useable for longer than a snow one, which is prone to stickiness and clumping above -20C (imagine landing into treacle, or taking off into subzero air with half a ton of packed snow in the wheel bays - and skis are not much better) so the number of days on which the temperature has been reported will have increased and include more summer days. One presumes that the number of buildings surrounding the runway has also increased (it always does) over 50 years so the wind speed will be lower and the surface temperature higher. The problem with pre-satellite surface temperature data is that it almost all comes from airfields, which by definition are not a representative sample of an entire continent.
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Post by marchesarosa on Mar 22, 2013 19:15:32 GMT 1
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