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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 14, 2011 1:20:11 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 14, 2011 18:25:58 GMT 1
The American Astronomical Society meeting in Austin has just made a major announcement on the state of the sun. Fron Space.com reporting from the conference: Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years. The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated. The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces. … Currently, the sun is in the midst of the period designated as Cycle 24 and is ramping up toward the cycle’s period of maximum activity. However, the recent findings indicate that the activity in the next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 25, could be greatly reduced. In fact, some scientists are questioning whether this drop in activity could lead to a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 when the sun showed virtually no sunspots. … “We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we see no sign of it,” Hill said. “This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.” … If the models prove accurate and the trends continue, the implications could be far-reaching. “If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.” wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/14/the-major-aas-solar-announcement-suns-fading-spots-signal-big-drop-in-solar-activity/#more-41648
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 15, 2011 15:59:37 GMT 1
Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decadePhysicists say sunspot cycle is 'going into hibernation' By Lewis Page Posted in Science, 14th June 2011 17:00 GMT What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth – far from facing a global warming problem – is actually headed into a mini Ice Age. The announcement made on 14 June (18:00 UK time) comes from scientists at the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) and US Air Force Research Laboratory. Three different analyses of the Sun's recent behaviour all indicate that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin. The Sun normally follows an 11-year cycle of activity. The current cycle, Cycle 24, is now supposed to be ramping up towards maximum strength. Increased numbers of sunspots and other indications ought to be happening: but in fact results so far are most disappointing. Scientists at the NSO now suspect, based on data showing decades-long trends leading to this point, that Cycle 25 may not happen at all. This could have major implications for the Earth's climate. According to a statement issued by the NSO, announcing the research: An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots [which occurred] during 1645-1715. As NASA notes: Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715. Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. During the Maunder Minimum and for periods either side of it, many European rivers which are ice-free today – including the Thames – routinely froze over, allowing ice skating and even for armies to march across them in some cases. "This is highly unusual and unexpected," says Dr Frank Hill of the NSO. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation." www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/Let's wait and see, eh?
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Post by eamonnshute on Jun 15, 2011 16:13:17 GMT 1
A very interesting possibility, I am surprised that the media are not making more of it. One would think that an impending ice age would be a bigger story than a one-day strike by civil servants! More about it here: www.skyandtelescope.com/news/123844859.html
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Post by principled on Jun 15, 2011 16:25:04 GMT 1
Oh gaud, and my daughter's just emigrated to Canada! Come back GW, all is forgiven! P
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Post by StuartG on Jun 15, 2011 17:45:39 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 16, 2011 23:57:35 GMT 1
I cannot believe the nonsensical presentation about the sun’s behaviour I have just heard from daft Kirsty Wark and even dafter Susan Watts on Newsnight just now!
The story revolves round the American Astronomical Society announcement that the sun may be entering a quite phase. Wonderful - the BBC has noticed our local star at last!- maybe another Maunder Minimum and another Little Ice Age is in the offing? obligatory pictures of Thames Frost Fair!
But what is the “line” taken by the beeb? Instead of the opportunity to explore the possibility that sun cycles and other solar variability may ALSO account for the purported "unprecedented" temperature rise of the last 30 years of the 20th century in the same way they accounted for the temperature decline of Little Ice Age, we are treated to an unbelievable hastily cobbled together scare-mongering studio angstfest whereby it is SERIOUSLY proposed that the predicted temperature fall consequent on the quiescent sun should actually be further aggravated by geo-engineering to make the world EVEN COOLER.
What insanity has grippped these people? If the sun is going to be cooler, growing seasons will be shortened and the world may go hungry. But all these CO2 alarmists can think of is working to make it even COLDER - to use this *respite* from *catastrophic warming* to promote even more crazy climate control idiocy via geo-engineering - mirrors in space, aerosol creation, wee in the ocean etc etc etc!
Somehow I don’t think this attempt to pre-empt and obfuscate the "quiet sun" debate by piling on even more irrational CO2 alarmism is going to work because the OBVIOUS ripost from rational thinkers will clearly be that as the sun warms so does the sun cool our planet. Ergo, CO2 as climate "driver" obviated! Alarmism dead in the water!
Clearly the footsoldiers IPCC orthodoxy are trying desperately to keep a toehold in the debate by getting their spin in first!
It will not work - I predict the beginning of the end of the catastrophic global warming hypothesis and the eclipse of the IPCC clique by solar physicists! Hurrah! About time.
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 17, 2011 12:50:42 GMT 1
THE DEMISE OF SUNSPOTS—DEEP COOLING AHEAD? Don J. Easterbrook, Professor of Geology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA The three studies released by NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network this week, predicting the virtual vanishing of sunspots for the next several decades and the possibility of a solar minimum similar to the Maunder Minimum, came as stunning news. According to Frank Hill, “the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.” The last time sunspots vanished from the sun for decades was during the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1700 AD was marked by drastic cooling of the climate and the maximum cold of the Little Ice Age. What happened the last time sunspots disappeared?..... The Maunder Minimum was not the beginning of The Little Ice Age—it actually began about 1300 AD—but it marked perhaps the bitterest part of the cooling. Temperatures dropped ~4º C (~7 º F) in ~20 years in mid-to high latitudes. The colder climate that ensued for several centuries was devastating. The population of Europe had become dependent on cereal grains as their main food supply during the Medieval Warm Period and when the colder climate, early snows, violent storms, and recurrent flooding swept Europe, massive crop failures occurred. Winters in Europe were bitterly cold, and summers were rainy and too cool for growing cereal crops, resulting in widespread famine and disease. About a third of the population of Europe perished... read on here wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/17/easterbrook-on-the-potential-demise-of-sunspots/
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 17, 2011 13:07:12 GMT 1
MattN says
Gentlemen, THIS is it. The next 20-40 years should absolutely confirm or deny the power of CO2 to control the climate. If we lose all sunspots like the Maunder for decades and don’t cool off, then…..
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Indeed. This could be a good test of the AGW hypothesis - or not. We know what the spin will be, though. If the planet cools they will argue that it would be *even cooler* without the extra CO2.
Actually AGW is a hypothesis that cannot be disproved with empirical evidence. This should alert the proponents that it is not a scientific proposition at all but an ideological one.
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 17, 2011 13:13:23 GMT 1
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Post by speakertoanimals on Jun 17, 2011 16:54:00 GMT 1
This is just plain WRONG. I thought that given your recently admitted ignorance on the details of CO2, you'd refrain from making gradiose statements about scientific validity, but seems not.
IF the sun went loopy, and we did enter a new mini ice age, it wouldn't DISPROVE AGW for starters, just introduce a new factor into the climate models (solar variability, since the deniers keep banging on about that one!).
And as was said:
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 18, 2011 10:01:10 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 18, 2011 10:07:55 GMT 1
Alan the Brit on WUWT says: September 10, 2010 at 1:38 am
The year, 2050. The place, southern England, Devonshire. The time, close to a New Ice Age as everywhere north is frozen solid!
A professor of ancient languages & an anthropologost who has studied every existing cave-man writing & scribble, painting, etc, & who has studied the capacity of the ancient human skull/brain & jaw vocal capacity has translated the phrase, “Ooo, ooo, ooo, ugh, ugh, ugh, agh,agh, ooo, ooo, ugh”, through a highly validated language computer model using “representations”, “simulations”, & “sophistication”, from a humungous taxpayer-funded state organisation, to mean……..
“It’s the freeking Sun, man, coupled with variations in orbital mechanics of the Earth's rotation, speed of rotation, axial tilt, & wobble, & the variations in the gravitational effects of the other planets in the solar system upon the Earth up to & including our own planetary satellite, & the much misunderstood chaotic internal natural variations that these cause the Earth’s climate system, man, innit, nowotaaaameeen, bro?”
It has to be pointed out that there are some uncertainties in this translation.
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Post by louise on Jun 19, 2011 9:19:59 GMT 1
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Post by StuartG on Jun 19, 2011 12:16:16 GMT 1
Page 3 "However, correlations do not demonstrate cause and effect, so the present data are unable to separate whether the Sun-Earth coupling is via electromagnetic radiation (total irradiance/UV/...) and/or via energetic cosmic rays (galactic/solar). But it is important to note that these are the only possible vectors (it is unlikely that the solar wind itself could be directly responsible) - and so at least one of them must be implicated. In the case of cosmic rays one should in particular study and understand the amplification factors that would be necessary to enhance their role despite their very small energy input (roughly equivalent to that of starlight) in comparison with total solar irradiance. (The vast disparity of energies, by itself, does not exclude the possibility of an effect; there are numerous examples in physics of large energy amplification factors, such as a nuclear chain reaction released by a few initial neutrons.)" cloudws.web.cern.ch/cloudws/documents_talks/IACI_conclusions/IACI_conclusions.pdfReports like this sparked off ones like "On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth" these are difficult to discuss as they are closed. [pays job] but climate models coupled or not can be made to show much anything. they do say in the extract "with solar activity similar to recent decades" well that seems to be one of the points that are made in the original reports. The solar activity is not said to be changing as the last few decades, but is showing signs of behaving as a 'minimum' à la, as a preamble to another 'Dalton' or somesuch' and then they go on to compare it to an 'imaginary' temperature increase [projection]. In short, if the point is entirely sidestepped and comparison to a 'scenario' not shewn in the original documents is used, it will be different. StuartG
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