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Post by marchesarosa on Nov 10, 2012 12:25:52 GMT 1
Mr Sonde will enjoy this paper by Brent Walker Feb 2012! Extra-Terrestrial Influences on Nature’s Riskswww.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/Papers/WBR9_Walker.pdfThis paper looks at various aspects of the ongoing scientific revolution in relation to our solar system and beyond. From what is now known and understood in physics, the paper attempts to identify extra-terrestrial risk factors in relation to terrestrial extreme weather, climate risks, seismicity and volcanic eruptions. The paper provides information about various useful data sets including many relatively new data sets and tools that have come into existence since the space age. These various data sets and tools can be used to predict changes in nature’s risks. For example; 1. An understanding of the 18.6 year elliptical cycle of the Moon plus the harmonic resonances between the orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Mars and Jupiter and the orbital period of the Moon enable changes to be predicted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. These climate cycles lead to changes in the incidence rates of El Ninos and La Ninas and assist in the prediction of future periods of extreme bushfire risk in Victoria and periods of extreme wet weather in South East Queensland. 2. Volcanic and earthquake activity is influenced by cyclical deviations from the trend in changes in Earth’s rotation rate because of the change in the amount of angular momentum that is converted to internal heat energy. 3. Volcanic and earthquake activity are increased during periods when the strength of the sun’s magnetic field is low for extended periods, such as during a solar grand minimum. 4. Future sunspot activity can be predicted from planetary gravitational effects. This means that the ephemeris4 can be used to predict future solar cycles of both high and low sunspot activity and hence give many decades of warning of natural climate changes and changes in the incidences of volcanism and catastrophic earthquakes. The development of the science of many of the topics of this paper is so extensive and specialized that no one person or even a group of people would be capable of absorbing all of it and understanding all of its implications. The paper has incorporated scientific theory and data that the author has obtained up to mid-March 2012. There is much more available scientific information and data. more....... |
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Post by marchesarosa on Nov 10, 2012 12:33:17 GMT 1
Summary and Conclusions
Risk Factors Originating from within the Solar System:
a) The Sun is predominant in a still evolving solar system, with Jupiter being the predominant planet.
b) Transfers of angular momentum between orbiting bodies occur. Some transfers are quantified and these transfers are enormous.
c) There are Moonquakes and they are caused by a number of factors.
d) Sunspot activity is very weak in the current cycle and seems to be getting weaker.
Also there is a great variation between sunspots and these variations affect some of
the Sun’s emissions.
e) The Sun’s size slightly changes during solar cycles and between cycles of maximum
and minimum activity and thus total solar irradiance also (slightly) varies.
f) How the temperature changes in the various zones in the upper atmosphere and
what causes those changes.
g) The Sun’s magnetic field varies significantly by several hundred percent over a solar
cycle and is very weak for the current stage of solar cycle 24.
h) Extreme ultra-violet and far ultra-violet emissions of the sun (UEV and FUV
emissions are mainly in ultra-violet C spectrum) vary by several hundred percent
over a solar cycle and are very weak for the current stage of solar cycle 24.
i) The Sun’s path around the solar system barycenter is wobbly but predictable from
the gravitational effects of the major planets. There are a number of similarities between its movements in 1790/92 and in 2004/10. (The Dalton Grand Minimum is said to have commenced in 1790). Also, once Jupiter’s influence is excluded there are a number of similarities in the movement of the solar system barycenter relative to the sun from 1788-1793 and 2004-2011.
j) There is a very strong likelihood that the Sun has entered a new “Grand Minimum”.
Gravity and Tidal Forces:
a) Gravity, through tidal forces is gradually imposing a grand order to our solar system through phase locks, resonances and harmonics.
b) The Moon is phase locked and this was caused by gravitational tidal forces.
c) Many large satellites of other planets are phase locked and some harmonically
resonate.
d) Many planets are in resonance or near resonance.
e) Charon, Pluto’s satellite, is in geostationary orbit. This was caused by tidal forces.
f) Earth’s day lengthens due to transfers of angular momentum to the Moon and is
caused by tidal forces. But nearly all rotational energy lost by Earth is transferred to
internal heat energy.
g) The enormous tidal forces on Io (Jupiter’s nearest large satellite) from Jupiter,
Europa and Ganymede (Jupiter’s next two large satellites) cause quakes and volcanism. The energy produced by this is around 125 trillion watts.
h) Shoemaker Levy 9 was broken up by tidal forces because it approached within Jupiter’s Roche limit in 1993. When these pieces next approached Jupiter in 2004 they did not escape Jupiter’s gravitation pull.
External Influences on Weather Patterns:
a) EUV, FUV, the solar wind, the magnetosphere and cosmic rays all play a role on the various levels of the atmosphere.
b) EUV and FUV normally regulate the balance between nitrogen oxides and ozone, but solar flares can upset this balance.
c) There is an extra-terrestrial reason for the occurrence of ozone holes. Ozone has a greenhouse role and hence it has a role in climate patterns.
d) The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations affect the weather, but are influenced by the solar vortex as well as tidal, planetary and gravity waves.
e) There is a link between auroras and weather patterns.
f) There is an explanation for the recent string of very cold winters in the Northern
Hemisphere and the particularly freezing February of 2012.
g) There is a relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El-Ninos
or La-Ninas. Also there is a relationship between the PDO and changes in Earth’s
length of day caused by gravitational forces from within the solar system.
h) Water vapour and carbon dioxide play different roles as greenhouse gases.
i) How extreme weather patterns can occur and the role of extra-terrestrial forces on
these occurrences.
j) There are climatic implications of the new solar grand minimum.
The Sun’s Magnetic Field:
a) The planets are connected magnetically.
b) The Sun’s magnetic field is currently behaving oddly at the outer reaches of the
solar system.
c) Galactic cosmic rays are more prevalent during periods when the Sun’s magnetic
field is weak.
d) Weak galactic cosmic rays are currently able to penetrate the veil of the
magnetosphere.
e) There is a periodic direct magnetic connection between Earth’s magnetic field lines
and the Sun’s magnetic field lines.
f) There is a flux tube between Io and Jupiter, which essentially is an electric arc
between the two.
Risk Factors that Originate From Beyond the Solar System:
a)There are tiny sub-atomic particles that have a half-life of 1.56 microseconds called Muons. Because of their energy and the general theory of relativity these particles last much longer.
b)Muons have an effect on cloud cover, particularly in higher latitudes.
c)Muons help to precipitate volcanic eruptions and probably some swarms of earthquakes, like those occurring in Christchurch, New Zealand. This is particularly the case in the Northern Hemisphere countries of Iceland, Japan, the Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) and Alaska and in the Southern Hemisphere the countries of New Zealand, Chile, Argentina and the Antarctic continent.
d) Muon density varies by latitude and is inversely proportional to the strength of the magnetosphere.
e) There is a relationship between the intensity of cosmic ray flux (generating muons) and little ice-ages and climatic warm periods.
f) Cosmic rays affect human health.
The conclusions that can be drawn from this paper are:
1) Actuarial models used to predict nature’s risks should include inputs from extra-terrestrial factors.
2) There is a wealth of data being produced in the space-age that will provide actuaries with predictive tools to assess future changes in many of nature’s risks.
3) Actuaries should be aware that the risk of natural catastrophes is not normal during a solar grand minimum. Actuaries should also be aware that these not normal periods only usually occur every few hundred years but they do last for decades. This means that the higher incidence of catastrophic events that have occurred in 2010 and 2011 should not be regarded as a random fluctuation but rather as the new normal for the next few decades.
4) Although research into long term climate change is important for mankind and for the profession, actuaries currently face the considerable threat that they are underestimating the natural risk frequency and severity caused by the new solar grand minimum.
Addendum
On March 28, 2012 Swiss Re published its latest Sigma study which showed that in 2011the economic losses from catastrophes totaled US$370 billion and insurance losses US$116 billion, of which US$110 billion was from natural causes. Although the economic losses were about 1/3rd higher than the previous highest year (2008) the insurance losses were slightly below that year, but only because of the very low proportion of insurance cover of the economic loss caused by the Sendai earthquake. Since 2004, when the sunspot activity went unusually quiet and unusually early in the solar cycle, there have been the four highest years of worldwide economic losses from catastrophes. Two of these years are 2010 and 2011. While the high levels of catastrophic losses in recent years are partially due to the increasing aggregation of economic risks there is also a long term natural cycle involved. This paper is intended to help actuaries better understand the natural forces that influence the risk of natural catastrophes.
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