Post by Progenitor A on Mar 6, 2020 15:09:44 GMT 1
AGW Legerdemain
How to make 32% appear to be 97%
Professor John Cook is a distinguished scientist that has conducted an examination of the work of some 11,000 scientists working on GW
I must emphasis that the Professor doe NOT perform legerdemain - his work is beyond reproach.
Here is that abstract of his report:
"We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published"
Note that the professor openly ignores the work of the majority of scientists - the 64% that are non-committal on AGW.
Having discarded the majority, he quite fairly and openly concentrates on the minority 34% of scientists that committed themselves to either supporting or opposing AGW
He finds quite correctly, that 97% of the minority support anthropogenic global warming.
Fair enough. There is nothing wrong with his findings
So where does the 'legerdemain' come in?
Well, look around Facebook - wherever AGW is mentioned its supporters jump in and aver that 97% of GW scientists support AGW! In fact the vast majority of scientists as Prof Cook shows , are non-committal on AGW!!
How to make 32% appear to be 97%
Professor John Cook is a distinguished scientist that has conducted an examination of the work of some 11,000 scientists working on GW
I must emphasis that the Professor doe NOT perform legerdemain - his work is beyond reproach.
Here is that abstract of his report:
"We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published"
Note that the professor openly ignores the work of the majority of scientists - the 64% that are non-committal on AGW.
Having discarded the majority, he quite fairly and openly concentrates on the minority 34% of scientists that committed themselves to either supporting or opposing AGW
He finds quite correctly, that 97% of the minority support anthropogenic global warming.
Fair enough. There is nothing wrong with his findings
So where does the 'legerdemain' come in?
Well, look around Facebook - wherever AGW is mentioned its supporters jump in and aver that 97% of GW scientists support AGW! In fact the vast majority of scientists as Prof Cook shows , are non-committal on AGW!!