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Post by marchesarosa on Mar 21, 2011 18:30:40 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Mar 26, 2011 20:33:59 GMT 1
California Snow26 March 2011 by E.M.Smith (aka Chiefio) When I first learned to ski, it was a bit “late in life” compared to most folks. I was in college, and a ‘flatlander’. That was during the 1970's. We had just left the cold phase and started into the heating phase of the 60 year cycle. They were drought years. The folks then lamented the “Great years they had just had” and wondered what had caused these terrible years. I spent many years, skiing Squaw Valley, when they would scatter hay on the bald patches on “Mountain Run” as the “drought years” brought only sparse snow. Well, things have sure changed. We’re now into the cold cycle. “Spring Skiing” usually runs a few months. With many feet on the ground and more falling, I think we’re likely to see “Spring” skiing in May, maybe even June. (It will depend on if we get rain to melt the snow in one big batch, or if it must melt slowly in the cool high altitude sun). What I remember of the last time “about this part of the cycle” was that in the 50's there were heavy rains, lots of floods, and California embarked on a major damn building project to tame the floods. I expect we’re going to see some of that “issue” come round again. On one occasion in the Central Valley, near Chico, it rained so much that it looked like a lake for miles. The land is dead flat, the soil adobe clay. In one place the road came very near a small creek. It had flooded and overrun the road. Only about a foot deep, and not moving much. My Dad stopped the car and we joined some other folks “catching fish” by hand. There were a load of fair sized catfish and carp that had come over the curb onto the ‘dip’ of the road, but would not go back over it to get away. We kept the catfish, gave the carp to the French Laundry Family that lived next door (who loved ‘em and thought a 1.5 foot long carp a great gift, 2 of them a treasure… She nailed it to a plank of wood and slow baked them with a basting of what I think was wine (I was only 5 then…) to dissolve the pin bones) California dried out during the later ’70s and ’80s. Now 30+ years later, we’re back to cold rain and by the bucket. With loads of snow. The cycle has turned. It has nothing to do with CO2, nor with human activities. chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/03/26/california-snow/
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Post by louise on Mar 27, 2011 18:04:30 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Apr 1, 2011 10:18:37 GMT 1
And your point is?
Did you notice this, Louise?
" The uncertainty analysis indicates a 95% confidence interval in NH spring SCE of ±5–10% over the pre-satellite period and ±3–5% over the satellite era. The multi-dataset analysis shows larger uncertainties"
The uncertainties are greater than the variation supposedly being "measured".
In fact there was NO hemispheric "measurement" during the greater part of the period of comparison. It's all estimate, imagination, computer modelling and pie in the sky. Why do you keep falling for it? The cyclical variation in snow cover is mainly natural in origin going up and down as the westher/climate varies as you would expect. Apart from faster melt caused by aerosol pollution and soot deposition nothing sinister or untoward is happening.
Find something else to worry about.
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Post by marchesarosa on May 2, 2011 18:32:18 GMT 1
Record Snow Season in Western Ski CountryThe season is now over at most US resorts but for several famous name areas it has been a record-breaking winter for snowfall, and those that are still open are racking up fresh snowfall even now. In Colorado Vail, which closed at the weekend, has reported more snow than ever before. Vail has received 511 inches (12.8m) of snow this winter, beating the previous record of 505 inches set in the 1977-78 season. Two nearby resorts that are still open - Arapahoe Basin and Loveland - have both recently passed the 100 inch (2.5m) base level and, in Loveland’s case at least, may also set all time snowfall records. Loveland has had a foot (30cm) of new snow in the past few days and a similar amount is forecast for the next few days. So far it has received 536 inches of snow this winter and needs to pass 572 inches (the 1995/96 season total) to break records. Its season continues to May 8th. Arapahoe Basin has seen similar snowfalls recently although its season-to-date total is less than 400 inches (10 metres). It currently expects to stay open until at least June 5th. In California several resorts have set all-time snowfall records, including Mammoth Mountain which plans to remain open in to July. Squaw Valley is open weekends through May. Other still open options include Snowbird in Utah, Crystal Mountain in Washington state (which announced a foot of snow earlier this week and hopes to stay open to July) and Timberline in Oregon which aims to stay open almost year round (Closing for a few weeks in September). It issued a powder alarm for 41cm of new snow on Tuesday. Snowbird also just reported it has received the most snow in its 40 year history at 690 inches (17.25m) “This has been a remarkable season for Snowbird,” said resort president Bob Bonar. “We’ll be celebrating with skiing until Memorial Day and most likely beyond, with conditions that are anything but typical spring skiing.” From Joe d'Aleo's ICECAP www.icecap.us/
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Post by marchesarosa on May 16, 2011 14:11:13 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on May 17, 2011 18:12:57 GMT 1
Tour of California: Stage 1 Snowed OutMay 15, 2011 A photo from pro cycling's Team Garmin of conditions near the start of the Tour of California this morning. Update, 2:25 p.m.: Here's the official statement from the tour people, complete with Levi Leipheimer's statement to the crowd at the start line: Due to extreme weather conditions and potentially unsafe roads, Stage 1 of the 2011 Amgen Tour of California was cancelled just before the riders, who were lined up at the start, were about to begin the race.
“We were monitoring weather conditions up until the predicted 1:15 p.m. PT start time, and we just couldn’t safely put the riders out on the course with the current forecast,” said Andrew Messick, president of AEG Sports.
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Post by marchesarosa on May 29, 2011 8:33:01 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 5, 2011 8:54:05 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 7, 2011 17:05:49 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 7, 2011 17:14:12 GMT 1
It's not really surprising, is it, that the Americans are more sceptical about anthropogenic global warming than us on our little off-shore island warmed by the Gulf Stream?
But we're catching them up. And Sir Paul Nurse is worried!
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Post by speakertoanimals on Jun 7, 2011 17:17:54 GMT 1
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Post by principled on Jun 9, 2011 10:41:10 GMT 1
Sta While I don't agree with everything that marchesa says, one has to admit that the huge variability in weather makes accurate climate modelling near to impossible. This is the nub of the doubters concerns. I recently posted about floods in Manitoba that were the result of greater than average snowfalls in the areas that feed its rivers. Next season there may be much less snow, who knows? What raised my concerns about the AGW lobby was their shear certainty at a time when they could not possibly have been so sure. Their models were- and are - relatively crude compared to the complex nature of the feedback systems we know about, let alone those we don't. And I'm not being disparaging when I say this. The same could have been said of Karl Benz when he produced the first car, it worked but by modern standards it was crude. Since then our knowledge about the various systems used in the car have improved and are now far more sophisticated. I see the same journey for climate science, so making hard and fast pronouncements now on future climate changes should, IMO, be treated with caution, especially when trying to differentiate between natural climate change and climate change that may be caused by anthropogenic CO2 forcing. In a nutshell a little less confidence and a little more doubt wouldn't go amiss. P
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Post by StuartG on Jun 9, 2011 10:57:25 GMT 1
p, Well Said! StuartG
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Post by nickrr on Jun 9, 2011 12:50:21 GMT 1
As has been pointed out many times before, predicting weather and climate are two completely different disciplines. It's true that predicting climate is hard, but it has very little (if anything) to do with predicting the weather.
All good science comes with a measure of the certainty around a result. Climate science is no different which is why IPCC reports etc come with an estimate of the level of certainty. I believe that it's around 90% - 95% in the latest reports. There isn't much uncertainty because the evidence is strong. Why should scientists report less confidence in their results than they really have?
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