Lord Turnbull advises caution

[marchesarosa]

Lord Turnbull, the former Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Home Civil Service (2002 – 2005), has called on MPs and ministers to consider more carefully the rising costs and economic risks of Britain’s unilateral climate policies.

In a dispassionate but devastating critique of current policies, Andrew Turnbull also criticises the blind faith in the propositions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) given that they do not bear the weight of certainty with which they are often expressed.

In his briefing paper for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Lord Turnbull outlines the many doubts and disagreements that exist about key IPCC assumptions.

thegwpf.org/images/stories/gwpf-reports/lord-turnbull.pdf







Thanks to Bishop Hill.

[principled]

Marchesa
Very interesting link. For me, a lowly engineer, the telling part is:

" A major problem of UK policy is its unilateralism. Our Climate Change Act imposes legal duties, regardless of what ever else other countries do, or do not do... If we push too hard on decarbonisation by raising the price of carbon through a range of instruments we will suffer double jeopardy. Energy-using industries will migrate and, if the climate pessimists are right, we will still have to pay to
adapt..."

My mind goes back to a parish council meeting where the "energy conservation" officer came to discuss how the CC was looking to reduce its CO2 by 80%. We would, she said, have village energy committees, home insulation, low energy light bulbs...
I couldn't help but ask if she knew how much her suggestions would save...she didn't know.

Sometimes I feel like tearing out what little hair I have. Most of the people talking about 80% reduction are -IMO- technologically illiterate and somehow think that reducing something by 80% is a bit like going on a diet; you pop down the local health food shop and buy a few low calorie shakes and hey presto you've achieved your target. Very few, I guess, have ever entered a steel or glasss making plant, or any heavy engineering plant . These are the industries we will lose (and have lost).
Still, we can always rely on the banks to take up the economic slack!
P

[marchesarosa]

PRINCIPLED, one alarming statistic that impressed me was that by 2050 we would have to produce every unit of UK GDP with only 5% of the CO2 emitted today

"Taking account of growth in the economy, this means that 40 years from now each unit of
GDP must be produced with only 5 percent of the CO2 it is currently."

It's pie in the sky. But perhaps Louise can tell us how it will be done?

[principled]

Marchesa
One point I stupidly forgot to make is that this reduction target assumes that companies are profligate with their energy use. I am sure Jonjel will agree that industry is ALWAYS trying to find ways to cheapen the cost of its products. This includes looking VERY closely at energy use.
They have to. If they are part of any supply chain tier it is impossible in many cases to pass on increased costs. Indeed, in many cases the buyer comes along and says, "We'll buy your product , but at x% less than last year". With such pressure, it would be insane for the producer not to look at energy usage.

P