|
|
Post by Progenitor A on May 11, 2018 14:16:11 GMT 1
|
|
|
|
Post by mrsonde on May 11, 2018 16:00:40 GMT 1
Personally, I see very little reason to be in any way worried about tariffs - certainly not the minor ones under WTO. As far as I can work out they'd on balance be a significant advantage for us. I've explained why fairly thoroughly I think, as I have the obvious solution to the so-called Irish problem, but I'm happy to do so again if anyone disagrees. There'd be a short period of some adjustment, and a percent or so on inflation during that period, but that's just one of the reasons our bargaining position should have been from the start that we're happy to be on WTO at the end of our two year leaving period. Most businesses would have adjusted by now, here and there - I don't think business would have lost any market at all. I doubt if the mood in the City is all that positive, I think they're all shitting bricks, but mainly because of this suicidal move by Labour, the LibDems and some very foolish Tory rebels to force May to hobble our tax haven dependencies. (And don't let anyone believe for a second this isn't at the manipulative behest of Brussels.) This is so important, and such a direct threat against this country, I think the government will fall if she's unable to derail this move - she'll have to go for an election if she can't find the numbers to resist. Even with the advantages of our language and legal advantages, the infrastructure and so forth, the tax havens are by far the real reason for the world success of the City - all of it goes back to Empire at root, but without the tax haven regime set up in the 60s we'd have lost our position as a leading capital centre along with that Empire's dissolution. All of that business - by some expert estimates over 90% of the City's business - will go to the States: much of it's been moving there already since this backbench coup was first mooted (Corbyn wants the taxes, and is quite happy to strangle our cash cow - the inherent contradiction doesn;t seem to bother him. The Tory rebels, and the LDs, I'm fairly convinced, are all Remainers, pretending as is their rather nauseating habit to be virtuous.) The trade does have its undeniable deeply unpleasant aspects of course - the money's dirty, 99% of it, evading taxes, stolen by corrupt dictators, drug and arms money, etc. But most of the truly objectionable features of that trade can be dealt with properly simply by greater openness. It's the insane tax regimes of the West that make such secrecy so attractive, and the old capital control regimes - get rid of those and you can let the people of Africa, China, Russia etc. deal with their own thieves. One thing's an absolute certainty - no one in America is going to be so self-destructive to follow suit. |
|
|
|
Post by alancalverd on May 27, 2018 23:37:32 GMT 1
Apropos the Irish Question, surely the answer is to have whatever border the Irish government wants. A continuation of the status quo will annoy the rest of the EU because it will constitute a leaky non-border with a truly foreign country, and any variation of the status quo will annoy the Dublin government because it will be bad for Irish exports. Not our problem,chaps, sort it out for yourselves, and we will say yes. The common travel and residence arrangements between the UK and Republic predate the EU so cannot be affected by Brexit.
|
|
|
|
Post by mrsonde on May 28, 2018 8:31:58 GMT 1
Apropos the Irish Question, surely the answer is to have whatever border the Irish government wants. A continuation of the status quo will annoy the rest of the EU because it will constitute a leaky non-border with a truly foreign country, and any variation of the status quo will annoy the Dublin government because it will be bad for Irish exports. Not our problem,chaps, sort it out for yourselves, and we will say yes. The common travel and residence arrangements between the UK and Republic predate the EU so cannot be affected by Brexit. What "Irish government" do you mean? The "answer" is blindingly obvious, and a poll of N.Ireland has already shown there's a clear cross-sectional majority that approves of it, and I think we can take it as given we'd find the same in Eire. We simply say that on the island of Ireland, and between Ireland and the rest of the UK, we will adopt a Free Trade policy ( whatever the EU decides to do instead.) As you say, it would indeed then be their problem. They say they won't accept any imposition of border controls - so what else could they do but agree with us? So - the "border" would effectively be down the Irish Sea, applicable only to goods (or people) imported into Ireland from the EU to be re-exported to the UK (and, to be legalistically thorough, from the UK to the EU via Ireland.) This satisfies Dublin, one would presume - their goods can still travel unhindered across Britain to the EU, and vice versa, and they don't need the new container facilities they're busy building. It would satisfy (most of) N.Ireland - there'd be no difference to how things are currently, and no need for any changes at the border at all. The DUP say they'd object, and bring May's govt. down, because they'd be "different" from the rest of the UK. Adopt our abortion laws and all the rest of UK legislation, then - or do your worst: if this is the piffling issue of "principle" on which you go to the polls, you'd get hammered. As for May - she'd be returned with a decent majority, and most of her troubles would be a forgotten nightmare. The other party that would object are the EU apparatchiks, of course. But what could they do? Insist Eire imposes border controls? Good luck with that. This solution to this so-called problem is entirely within WTO rules, incidentally. In general, it's a real mystery why we haven't gone in with this obvious negotiating position from the start - and on the whole adopted a far more "hardball" stance overall. We have all the cards. It's been a huge mistake to pussyfoot around with them as we have, and May's problems have as a result been entirely of her own dithering pusillanimous creation. Rees-Mogg pointed this out in his excellent interview yesterday morning - on the whole, he impresses me more and more, and I think I should resile from my earlier dissent from Nay's view that he might one day become a Tory leader. If he can continue overcoming his Sun-Moon-Saturn stiff-poker-parson persona (Heath-Redwood-Lilly etc.) as he sometimes can, he might even be inspirational. |
|
|
|
Post by mrsonde on May 28, 2018 8:47:09 GMT 1
A pm has kindly pointed out that one of the few concrete promises that Obama made, in both of his campaigns, was to deal with this issue. As with his other hot-air promises, of course, he then did absolutely nothing.
|
|
|
|
Post by alancalverd on Jun 1, 2018 0:15:45 GMT 1
Interesting thought. I deal with a lot of airlines and freight forwarders who handle dangerous cargo in transit through UK airports. No problem - if the documentation meets IATA standards, it doesn't matter where the stuff originates or is destined: any duties are charged at destination directly between the consignor and consignee, and we get paid exactly the same per ton-mile regardless of any trade deals, customs unions etc.
|
|
