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Post by marchesarosa on Mar 28, 2013 4:35:27 GMT 1
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Post by fascinating on Mar 28, 2013 7:42:11 GMT 1
Thanks marchesa, good pictures, particularly of ice in Milan, snow in Rome, and freezing Istanbul.
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Post by alancalverd on Mar 28, 2013 19:59:27 GMT 1
There might not be any experimentum crucis possible to determine whether CO2 is causing global warming, but as a scientific theory it should generate definite falsification criteria in predictive consequences. It's been done, by nature, thousands of times. Whenever you look at a complete historical record, whether recent Mauna Loa data or ancient ice cores, you find that the temperature curve always leads the CO2 curve. Now if A happens before B, only the most gullible or demented would claim that B causes A. The surprise is that so many people are gullible or demented, but I guess the history of religion and politics demonstrates that homo sapiens is not a logical machine, so perhaps I shouldn't be surprised, just angry. Very recently, we've had an additional complication of anthropogenic CO2 being produced on a significant scale during a natural upswing in temperature. This makes it more difficult to distinguish between cause and effect until one or other parameter begins to decline, but AFAIK the laws of physics and the mechanisms of biochemistry haven't changed in several million years so I would expect to see a levelling or decline in non-anthropogenic CO2 if the global temperature levels off or decreases.
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Post by marchesarosa on Mar 30, 2013 23:24:56 GMT 1
BBC News, December 2004The data collected by experts from the university [of Bangor] suggests that a white Christmas on Snowdon - the tallest mountain in England and Wales - may one day become no more than a memory. The figures indicated that this winter Snowdon is on track to have less snow than any of the last 10 years. The results appear to back the growing body of evidence to support climate change. BBC News, March 2013Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts. Workers using two excavators tried but failed to clear the 4.7 mile (7.5km) track. The railway resumed operations from Llanberis last week after the winter break but they were suspended within days after heavy snow on the mountain. H/T Stephen. bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/30/snowdon-now-and-then.html
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Post by marchesarosa on Mar 30, 2013 23:27:31 GMT 1
In 2007 the National Trust held a photography exhibition called "Exposed - Climate Change in Britain's Backyard", showing photos of Snowdonia with and without snow. Welsh Environment Minister Jane Davidson said: "It has been suggested Snowdon may have to be renamed but like other parts of the world it stands as a reminder of what is happening to our planet." www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/2007/11/21/snowdonia-shows-signs-of-global-warming-55578-20137434/Of course, a few months later it was under a thick layer of the stuff. Courtesy of Alex Cull at Bishop Hill
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Post by alancalverd on Mar 31, 2013 10:58:03 GMT 1
BBC News, December 2004The data collected by experts from the university [of Bangor] suggests that a white Christmas on Snowdon - the tallest mountain in England and Wales - may one day become no more than a memory. Offtopic pedant mode: Why do people always say Snowdon is "the highest mountain in England and Wales"? It is about as far from the border as you can get, with several rivers between, so it is firmly in Wales and has no related foothills in England. Why not say it is the highest mountain in Holland and Wales? Or more pedantically, the highest mountain in England or Wales? Is there really a possibility that Scafell Pike may grow another 10% one day? So why mention England at all? It's not as high as Ben Nevis, so it isn't the highest mountain in Great Britain, but doesn't that therefore make it wholly unremarkable geographically, and only of interest in terms of political history? Not even that, since no significant historic events took place on its slopes, and it has never been claimed as part of any other territory than Wales. So let's settle for the truth: "Snowdon, a big lump of rock near the University of Bangor......"
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Post by marchesarosa on Apr 6, 2013 13:09:30 GMT 1
notrickszone.com/2013/04/06/baltic-sea-sets-march-ice-record-never-seen-this-much-ice-this-late-in-the-season/“Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record” Ice breakers navigating the Gulf of Bothnia have been astounded at the record spread of ice on the Baltic Sea, while scientists say they have never seen anything like it. ‘Since record keeping began in the sixties, we’ve never encountered anything like this before,’ ice breaker Ulf Gulldne told the local newspaper Örnsköldsviks Allehanda. On March 29th, 176,000 square kilometers of the Baltic Sea was covered in ice, a record for the time of year.” To blame is the long protracted winter with its unusually cold temperatures. The Local quotes a captain of an ice-breaker: I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season,” said Karl Herlin, captain of the icebreaker Atle.
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Post by marchesarosa on Apr 6, 2013 13:15:16 GMT 1
Russian Scientists Warn Global Temperatures To Fall 1.5°C By 2050. Strong Doubts About Warming Yesterday Germany’s No. 1 daily (circulation over 3.5 million), Bild online, carried the shock headline story: “Russian scientist sees next ice age approaching. Starting in 2014 it will start getting colder and colder +++ migration of people cannot be excluded“. Renowned Russian scientist Chabibullo Abdussamatov warns of a harsher global climate beginning in 2014 and extending for decades. Bild starts by reporting that finally the snow and ice gripping Russia since October are beginning to thaw. “That’s why most Russians shake their heads skeptically when the topic of global warming pops up,“ Bild writes. While some scientists say the cold is due to global warming, “one scientist at the Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg sees it completely differently: He sees the next ice age approaching soon!” Astrophysicist Chabibullo Abdussamatov claims that the sun will radiate significantly less warmth in the coming years. “Consequently a ‘little ice age’ lies ahead.” Bild adds that Abdussamatov says the Earth has had a negative energy budget since 1990, but that the oceans have been able to compensate with its stored energy. But the Russian scientist now says that’s over. Bild writes: Beginning around 2014 the average annual temperature will begin to drop, and by 2050 it will be about 1.5°C cooler than today when the low point is reached. Also the water temperature in the world’s oceans will fall about 1°C.” notrickszone.com/2013/04/05/russian-scientist-warns-global-temperatures-to-fall-1-5c-by-2050-and-global-cooling-refuges/
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Post by marchesarosa on Apr 6, 2013 14:09:51 GMT 1
Philip Eden is one of the country’s leading meteorologists, and also an accomplished weather historian. He has a weekly column in the Sunday Telegraph, which usually makes for interesting reading. Last week’s was no exception. Unfortunately the Telegraph never seem to publish these online, and , besides, the paper is now behind a paywall. So you’ll all have to make do with my scanned copy! - Paul Homewood
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Post by principled on Apr 6, 2013 15:59:04 GMT 1
Marchesa, I daren't send my daughter the quote from Chabibullo Abdussamatov. Her delight at seeing the melting snow in central Canada was short-lived. It's now started snowing again- that makes nearly 6 months of snow flurries. A lot even by Canadian standards. She's just a tad peed-off! P
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Post by marchesarosa on Apr 6, 2013 18:17:49 GMT 1
It would be very frightening if the temperatures were indeed on the slide. Far more scary than a slight increase! Food production would be hard hit and I dread to think what impact the last few weeks freezing temperatures have had on everyone's fuel bills.
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Post by alancalverd on Apr 6, 2013 18:19:46 GMT 1
Interesting observation that white Easters are more common that white Christmases. I used to go crosscountry skiing, almost every Easter, somewhere in England, until about 5 years ago (when my XC ski boots fell apart).
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Post by principled on Apr 6, 2013 19:20:13 GMT 1
Marchesa
Yes, it is scary. For example, Canada has a wheat growing season of just 90 days. It's output is 50% that of the US or Russia, but with such a small population it exports the majority (32 million tonnes). If the growing season were to shorten because of cooling, then this would have a dramatic effect on yields with a consequential effect on grain prices. Unfortunately, our illustrious leaders have been so mesmerized by the global warming lobby they probably don't have a plan B for cooling! Serious, indeed. P
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Post by mrsonde on Apr 7, 2013 6:02:46 GMT 1
Not an ice age, then. Not even a little ice age.
Based on an extrapolation of the sunspot cycle record, which is now known to be driven by the planets (esp Jupiter, Saturm uranus, and Neptune), and so is predictable with quite a high degree of confidence, we're heading for a Dalton-type mimimum, rather than a Maunder. Centred about the early 2030s. That may continue for another cycle, or perhaps even two - in which case the fall will be more likely three degrees. At the moment, the likeliest scenario (Scafetta puts it at 90%+ confidence) is a return to pre-1975 normality by about 2050.
All the temp rise since 1850 will have gone, and then some. So, thank goodness for the greenhouse effect of CO2 - however small it is, we'll be grateful for it.
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Post by principled on Apr 7, 2013 11:23:36 GMT 1
Mr S
As always, you make some important observations. Unfortunately, this is not how our illustrious leaders see climate (well going by what my local MP thinks, anyway). They're still in the "we're going to fry" mode at the moment and are determined to continue their CO2 reduction policies regardless. Unfortunately, the moral high ground they aspire to hold by their actions will, based on the changes that scientists are making on their warming predictions, rapidly become a vacuous mound of stupidity.
P
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