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Post by marchesarosa on Jul 11, 2011 14:43:36 GMT 1
From NASA Image above: Sun-blocking aerosols around the world steadily declined (red line) since the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, according to satellite estimates. The decline appears to have brought an end to the "global dimming" earlier in the century. Credit: Michael Mishchenko, NASA www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.htmlAnd now, suddenly, the aerosols are negating all the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming AGAIN? My, my. It's the same story as the sinking ocean basins and the isostatic rebound of the land negating the sea level rise, all of a sudden! Any port in a storm, eh, when the predictions fail?
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Post by StuartG on Jul 13, 2011 15:03:47 GMT 1
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Post by marchesarosa on Jun 15, 2012 11:49:46 GMT 1
notrickszone.com/2012/06/15/norwegian-climate-professor-hansens-projection-off-by-150-regrettable-that-politicians-still-view-it-as-reliable/Norwegian Climate Professor: Hansen’s Projection Off By 150%…Regrettable That Politicians Still View It As ReliableBy P Gosselin on 15. Juni 2012 At their Die kalte Sonne website, Professor Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning present a guest post by Prof. Jan-Erik Solheim, who comments on the huge divergence between Hansen’s 1988 forecast and actual observations.Figure 1: Temperature prognosis by the Hansen Group from 1988. The different scenarios assume 1.5% CO2 increase (blue), fixed CO2 emissions (green) and stopped CO2 emissions (red). In reality CO2 emissions have increased about 2.5% per year, which would be more than depicted the the blue curve scenario. The black curve is the actual temperature (smoothed 5-year mean). The Hansen-Model overestimated the temperature by 1,9°C and is thus a full 150% off. Graph supplemented as to Hansen et al. (1988). What ever became of James Hansens’ 1988 temperature forecast? Time for an evaluation by Prof. Jan-Erik SolheimOne of the most important publications on “dangerous man-made climate change” is one by James Hansen and his colleagues in the year 1988 which appeared in the Journal of Geophysical Research. The title of the publication: Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model. In this publication Hansen and his colleagues present the GISS Model II, which simulates climate changes resulting from concentration changes in atmospheric trace gases and airborne aerosols. Here the scientists illustrate three scenarios: –A: Increase of CO2 emissions of 1.5% per year –B: fixed increase CO2 emissions after the year 2000 –C: No increase in CO2 emissions after the year 2000 CO2 emissions have increased at rate of about 2.5% since the year 2000 and so according to Hansen’s paper, we would expect a temperature increase greater than the Model A scenario. Figure 1 shows all three of Hansen’s scenarios as well as the real measured global temperature. The arrow extending beyond Scenario A shows the temperature value that should have been predicted by the Hansen Team based a CO2 increase of 2.5%. According to Hansen’s projection, the temperature should have increased 1.5°C when compared to the 1970s level. In truth the temperature rose only 0.6°C. It is clearly visible that the temperature forecast modelled by the Hansen Group is off by about 150%. It is truly regrettable that precisely this modelling is still being viewed as a reliable forecast by our politicians. ======================================================= Jan-Erik Solheim is a professor at the University of Oslo Instute of Theoretical Astrophysics, an active member of the International Astronomical Union, and authored a number papers on climate change.
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